In the third quarter of 2023, the PC market saw a significant decline, with shipments down by 7.2% year-over-year, totaling 68.5 million units, as reported by IDC. This decrease is part of a larger trend, with IDC expecting full-year 2023 shipments to be down 13.8% compared to the previous year, which itself experienced a 16.6% decline compared to 2021. This marks an unprecedented occurrence in the PC market, with two consecutive years of double-digit year-over-year drops.
However, IDC remains optimistic about a potential market rebound in 2024. The following factors contribute to IDC's positive outlook for the coming year:
1) PC Refresh Cycle: By 2024, a significant portion of the commercial PC installed base is expected to exceed the four-year threshold, necessitating a refresh. This aligns with the growing demand to transition to Windows 11, which is anticipated to stimulate the market. As a result, the total PC market of 2024 is projected to experience a 3.4% growth compared to 2023.
2) AI Integration: The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities into PCs is anticipated to drive upgrades as AI-equipped devices hit the market in 2024, initially targeting specific segments of the enterprise PC market. Over time, as use cases expand and costs decrease, this trend is expected to permeate the broader market, further stimulating growth.
3) Continued Evolution and Recovery of the Consumer Market: Beyond 2024, the PC market is forecasted to witness a resurgence, surpassing pre-pandemic shipment levels and reaching a culmination of 285 million units by 2027.
These factors collectively underpin IDC's hope for a turnaround in the PC market, signaling potential for growth and recovery in the coming years.
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